The indicator reached its lowest level in nearly 12 years as investors responded to shifting economic conditions.

A milestone for the government

Ecuador’s country risk fell to 396 points on June 3rd, moving below the 400-point threshold for the first time in almost 12 years and giving the government a new argument that international confidence in the economy is continuing to improve.

The figure is the lowest recorded since October 2014. It also represents a sharp decline from the levels seen during periods of political uncertainty and financial strain, when Ecuador was viewed by international markets as a substantially riskier place to invest or lend money.

Country risk stood at 506 points at the end of March, meaning the indicator declined by 110 points in a little more than two months. Since the beginning of 2026, the reduction has been 96 points.

The downward movement has been even more significant when compared with the situation before Daniel Noboa returned to the presidency following the April 2025 election runoff. Since that vote, the indicator has fallen by 1,512 points. Compared with November 2023, when Noboa first took office, the cumulative drop has reached 1,620 points.

The government has presented the decline as evidence that its economic strategy is gaining credibility outside the country. In a statement, the presidency said the lower figure could produce benefits beyond financial markets by improving access to credit and encouraging investment.

“Reducing country risk generates concrete benefits for Ecuadorians, as it improves access to financing, promotes investment, boosts job creation, and contributes to consolidating an environment of greater economic stability,” the presidency said.

Bond issue followed by another decline

The latest reduction came less than a month after the government announced a second issuance of external debt bonds worth $1 billion on May 5th.

The timing is important because Ecuador’s ability to issue bonds depends heavily on the interest rates demanded by investors. When markets see a country as more likely to meet its obligations, lenders generally accept lower returns. When they see greater uncertainty, borrowing becomes more expensive.

For Ecuador, a lower country risk figure may create more room for future financing operations and reduce the cost of borrowing. It can also affect private investment decisions, since businesses and lenders use the indicator as one measure of the country’s broader economic environment.

The government described the new reading as an economic milestone and said it reflected growing confidence in Ecuador’s prospects. The decline does not eliminate the country’s financial challenges, but it places Ecuador in a more favorable position than it occupied during recent periods of instability.

What the number measures

Country risk is an indicator compiled by the U.S. investment bank JPMorgan. It is closely watched by governments, investors, banks and companies because it measures how international markets perceive the likelihood that a country will repay its debts.

The figure acts as a type of daily financial thermometer. It reflects the additional risk associated with lending money to a country compared with lending to the United States, which is generally treated as a benchmark in international markets.

A higher number signals greater concern that a government could struggle to meet its obligations or eventually default. That concern usually translates into higher interest rates for new loans and bond issues.

A lower number sends the opposite message. It suggests investors see less risk, which can make it easier and less expensive for the government to obtain financing. The effects can also spread into the wider economy by making the country more attractive to international investors.

Ecuador’s drop below 400 points marks a notable change from the conditions the country faced in previous years. While the indicator can rise or fall quickly in response to political events, fiscal decisions and global market conditions, the June 3rd reading gives the government its strongest result on this measure since 2014.