President Noboa aims to run for re-election in 2025, and the extent of his accomplishments or limitations leading up to that point will play a crucial role in shaping his political destiny. Following economic concerns, the primary focus will pivot towards addressing security issues.

President Daniel Noboa’s aspirations for re-election in 2025 hinge on his ability to navigate the complex challenges facing Ecuador until then. The core issues at the forefront of his agenda are reviving the struggling economy and addressing security concerns. These factors, coupled with the need to secure public support, make the next 13 months crucial for Noboa’s political future.

As of now, President Noboa and his cabinet have a mere 18 months in power, given the upcoming change in government scheduled for May 2025. With an eye on re-election, he must balance effective governance amidst Ecuador’s critical circumstances and strategize for the electoral landscape while maintaining a presence in Carondelet.

Citizens cautiously endorse Noboa’s performance

Initially, President Noboa enjoyed a favorable start, securing a 70% approval rating during his first month in office. His adept management and communication style have resonated positively with the citizens. Notably, the smooth approval of the first urgent economic project in the Assembly and the swift introduction of the ‘no more blackouts’ energy reform have garnered support.

However, uncertainties persist. The lack of details surrounding security measures, the shadow of a potential political pact with the Legislature, and the ambiguity in critical decisions such as the fate of former Vice President Jorge Glas create room for doubt among the electorate. Notably, the announcement of a popular consultation and its potential impact on subsidies and other issues remains a critical aspect of Noboa’s political strategy.

One pivotal opportunity for Noboa lies in surpassing his predecessor, Guillermo Lasso, by successfully implementing a popular consultation. This could bolster his image as a capable Head of State, strengthening his position in Carondelet.

Security is pivotal for Noboa’s success or failure

Security remains a key focus for President Noboa, with the flagship initiative being the Fénix Plan. Promising an Intelligence Center to counter organized crime, state-of-the-art equipment for the National Police and Armed Forces, the plan, however, lacks visible progress. The Security Block, operating in ‘hot zones,’ has been initiated, but details remain undisclosed due to national security concerns.

The prison system, another crucial component of Noboa’s strategy, involves constructing prisons on barges in the territorial sea. While the government pledges to lay the first stone by January 12, 2024, transparency issues persist regarding project costs, suppliers, and locations.

The Intelligence Central, a cornerstone of the Fénix Plan, remains shrouded in mystery. The recent appointment of Francisco Nickel as head of the Strategic Intelligence Center (CIES) is the only discernible movement in this direction. The status and financing of this ambitious project remain unknown, adding to the uncertainties surrounding Noboa’s security initiatives.

As 2024 unfolds, President Noboa’s ability to execute his projects and demonstrate tangible progress will shape his relationship with the citizens and the opposition. His success in managing the economy, implementing security measures, and navigating the political landscape will ultimately determine his viability for re-election in 2025. The coming months will undoubtedly be critical in defining the trajectory of Noboa’s political future.