Officials say the dry season could begin in September, while the power system’s safety assumptions depend partly on new generating capacity that has been delayed.

Ecuador is approaching another dry-season test for its electricity system, and officials are acknowledging that part of the planned new generation will not arrive as quickly as originally expected.

Vice Minister of Electricity Javier Medina said on August 20th that the 2026 dry season, or estiaje, is expected to begin in September and continue approximately through March 2027. Ecuador relies heavily on hydroelectric plants, whose output can fall sharply when river flows and reservoir inflows decline.

Between August 1st and August 19th, hydroelectric generation supplied about 76% of national demand, while thermal plants provided roughly 20.4%. The balance came from electricity imports and nontraditional renewable sources.

The November risk

CENACE, Ecuador’s national electricity operator, has modeled a possible power deficit of as much as 450 megawatts in November. Its operating plan calculates a relatively low probability of an energy deficit during the October 2026-March 2027 period, but that projection assumes planned additions to generating capacity arrive on schedule.

New generation is running late

The expansion plan envisions 1,092.1 megawatts of additional capacity entering the system between June 2026 and August 2027, with about 490 megawatts expected by November. Medina said delays mean only about 50 to 85 megawatts of new rented thermal generation are now likely to enter service by December. Another 115 to 150 megawatts could arrive during the first half of 2027.

Existing rented generation has its own uncertainty. Ecuador has used floating power plants operated by Karpowership. The contract for the 100-megawatt Murat Bey has been renewed, while processes involving other barges have faced suspension or delay.

CELEC is separately preparing smaller additions, including 10 megawatts of rented thermal generation at the Guangopolo complex, where commercial operation was planned for September.

Colombia is another variable because Ecuador can import electricity when neighboring supply is available. That support cannot be assumed under every scenario, particularly if regional weather conditions reduce hydroelectric output on both sides of the border.

What residents should watch

None of this means blackouts are certain. Actual conditions will depend on rainfall, reservoir levels, plant availability, fuel supply, demand and electricity imports from Colombia. The 450-megawatt figure is a modeled potential gap, not a scheduled amount of load shedding.

Still, memories of previous electricity shortages make the delays consequential. Cuenca is especially attentive because much of Ecuador’s major hydroelectric generation is located in the south, including the Paute complex.

Electricity shortages also carry consequences beyond household inconvenience. Businesses can lose production and refrigerated inventory, while residents who work online can lose connectivity and income. Buildings that depend on electric pumps can also experience water problems during extended outages.

Authorities therefore have several moving pieces to manage before the driest months arrive: maintenance on existing plants, delayed generation projects, thermal fuel supplies and import capacity. Good rainfall could make those preparations less critical; poor hydrology could make every additional megawatt important.

The next several weeks will show whether additional generation, maintenance work and hydrological conditions are sufficient to preserve reserves. For households and businesses, modest preparation — keeping backup lighting charged, protecting sensitive electronics and maintaining contingency plans for internet-dependent work — is reasonable even though authorities have not announced a new rationing schedule.