Bogotá says it can restore electricity sales, but Quito must decide whether to reopen the door.

Colombia says it is prepared to resume electricity exports to Ecuador, offering a potential buffer as Ecuador’s power system shows fresh signs of stress from lower hydroelectric output, localized outages, and a widening gap between supply and demand.

The offer came from Colombia’s Minister of Mines and Energy, Edwin Palma, who said his country is ready to provide power but made clear that any renewed flow of electricity depends on a decision by the Ecuadorian government. His remarks arrive at a delicate moment, as Ecuador works to reassure the public that recent outages in several cities do not amount to a national energy crisis.

Palma suggested that the current strain on Ecuador’s electrical system did not emerge out of nowhere. He argued that earlier cooperation between the two neighbors had functioned well and that the breakdown of those arrangements helped leave Ecuador more exposed when conditions became less favorable. Colombia, he said, remains willing to support its neighbor if Quito chooses to reactivate that channel.

A familiar regional connection

Before cross-border energy sales were interrupted, Colombia had been sending Ecuador an average of as much as 450 megawatts, enough to cover roughly a tenth of Ecuador’s electricity demand. That level of support, while not enough to solve structural weaknesses in the system, had served as an important cushion during periods of tight supply.

Now, with pressure building again inside Ecuador’s power network, the possibility of restarting imports has returned to the center of the discussion. The issue is especially important because Ecuador remains heavily dependent on hydroelectric generation, which leaves the country vulnerable when river flows fall or reservoirs decline.

The Ecuadorian government has maintained that the recent outages should be seen as isolated events tied to seasonal conditions and some technical failures, not as evidence of a broader electricity shortfall. Officials have described the disruptions as expected problems associated with the end of the dry season rather than the start of a new round of blackouts.

Even so, the latest operating data from key power plants has raised concern among energy analysts who see a system under visible strain.

Hydroelectric pressure increases

One of the clearest warning signs has come from Coca Codo Sinclair, the country’s largest hydroelectric plant and a central pillar of Ecuador’s generation system. In March 2026, reduced water flows were recorded there, cutting the plant’s contribution to national demand.

In February, Coca Codo Sinclair had been supplying about 25 percent of the electricity needed to meet demand. That share has now dropped to between 16 percent and 18 percent, forcing other generating assets to work harder to make up the difference.

The burden has shifted in large part to the Paute hydroelectric complex in south-central Ecuador, one of the country’s most important energy hubs. That complex has had to step up production to compensate for Coca Codo Sinclair’s weaker output, increasing pressure on the Mazar reservoir, its principal water source.

Over the last two weeks, the Mazar reservoir has fallen by about 8.5 meters, an indication of how heavily the system is leaning on southern hydro generation to keep the grid stable. Together, the plants in that hydroelectric chain provide around 1,756 megawatts, making them indispensable to the national supply.

The danger for Ecuador is not just that one plant is underperforming, but that the system increasingly depends on a smaller number of assets carrying a larger share of the load.

Experts warn of a fragile balance

Energy consultant Gabriel Secaira said the latest instability underscores the need to strengthen the electrical system and reduce the country’s exposure to hydrological swings. Among the options, he said, is resuming power purchases from Colombia to help stabilize supply and avoid more service interruptions.

Secaira estimates that Ecuador is currently facing an electricity deficit of around 1,000 megawatts, a shortfall that becomes more difficult to manage if river flows at Coca Codo Sinclair continue to weaken. In that context, imported power could serve as an emergency support measure while officials try to navigate the coming months.

His warning also extends beyond the immediate problem. The dry season in the Coca Codo Sinclair zone can last until mid-April, meaning the plant may continue operating under pressure for several more weeks. But the start of the rainy season does not necessarily eliminate the risk.

Higher rainfall in this region can bring increased sedimentation, which in turn can force operational shutdowns at the plant. That means Ecuador’s energy planners are confronting two different threats in succession: low flows during the dry period and heavy sediment loads once rains intensify.

A decision with political and practical weight

The Colombian offer places the next move squarely in Quito’s hands. Accepting external support could help ease immediate pressure on the grid, but it would also amount to a tacit acknowledgment that Ecuador’s domestic generation system remains vulnerable despite official efforts to calm public concern.

That vulnerability may become even more consequential later this year. Analysts are already looking ahead to October 2026, when another drought period is expected to begin, raising the prospect that today’s problems could become the prelude to a more difficult season unless the government broadens its energy options quickly.

For now, Colombia says the electricity is available. Ecuador must decide whether to treat that offer as a precautionary measure, a practical necessity, or an admission that the country’s power system is running with less room for error than officials have been willing to concede.