Political alignment may accelerate recovery, but disrupted contracts and lingering restrictions could delay a full return to normal.

Commercial traffic between Ecuador and Colombia is gradually recovering after a four-month tariff confrontation disrupted supply chains, increased consumer prices and forced exporters on both sides of the border to seek new markets.

The removal of the countries’ retaliatory tariffs in early June cleared the main obstacle to restoring trade. Business leaders, however, say lifting the duties did not instantly undo the effects of months of uncertainty. Some companies signed contracts with alternative suppliers, while others accumulated unusually large inventories before tariff increases took effect.

The election of Abelardo de la Espriella as Colombia’s next president has added optimism among Ecuadorian businesses. His political and economic positions are considered more closely aligned with those of President Daniel Noboa than those of outgoing Colombian President Gustavo Petro.

That relationship could make it easier for the neighboring governments to avoid another confrontation, but companies are still working through the commercial damage left behind.

Trade drops sharply during dispute

The conflict began when Ecuador imposed what it called a security tariff on Colombian imports. The initial 30% duty was justified by Noboa as a response to what he described as insufficient Colombian cooperation against drug trafficking and illegal mining along the countries’ shared border.

Petro’s government retaliated with tariffs of its own, restricted Ecuadorian rice imports and suspended electricity sales to Ecuador. The escalating measures affected one of the country’s most important regional trading relationships.

Total trade between the two countries fell to approximately $700 million from January through April 2026, compared with $888 million during the same period in 2025.

Ecuadorian imports from Colombia suffered the steepest decline, falling from $608 million to $437 million. Colombian products commonly sold in Ecuador — including coffee, chocolate, toothpaste and soap — were among the items that became more expensive as importers passed additional costs on to consumers.

Ecuador’s exports to Colombia declined more moderately, from $280 million to $263 million, but the impact was concentrated heavily in certain industries. Tire manufacturers and palm oil producers were among those most exposed to the loss of the Colombian market.

Ecuador exported 37,600 tons of palm oil to Colombia during the first five months of 2025. During the same period this year, shipments fell to 10,700 tons. No Ecuadorian crude palm oil entered Colombia during April or May, according to industry representatives.

Companies turned to alternative markets

The tariff dispute forced exporters to react quickly rather than wait for the governments to reach an agreement.

Palm oil companies redirected some shipments to India, helping producers reduce their losses. The substitute market came with higher transportation and commercial costs, however, because Ecuadorian exporters were competing against Asian producers located much closer to Indian buyers.

Colombia remains the more practical destination because of its proximity, established distribution networks and long history of doing business with Ecuador. Rebuilding those arrangements will nevertheless require new negotiations with buyers who may have found replacement suppliers during the dispute.

Palm oil industry representatives estimate it could take eight to 10 weeks to reactivate contracts and restore normal export volumes.

Importers face similar complications. Some Ecuadorian businesses that could no longer afford Colombian products signed agreements with suppliers elsewhere. Those companies may eventually return to Colombian providers, but many will first have to complete their existing contracts.

The disruption was also intensified by businesses attempting to anticipate each new tariff deadline. Importers increased orders in January before the original 30% duty took effect and again in April before the tariff was raised to 100%. Those purchases created uneven inventory levels that must be absorbed before normal ordering patterns resume.

Border commerce begins to recover

Businesses in the northern border city of Tulcán estimate that commercial activity has recovered to about 75% of its usual level.

The reopening has been slower than some merchants expected because companies remained cautious during the final weeks of Colombia’s presidential election. Many delayed new orders until the political outlook became clearer.

Trade representatives now expect import volumes to approach normal levels within 30 to 40 days, although individual industries could take considerably longer.

De la Espriella’s election may help improve business confidence. Ecuadorian commercial groups believe closer political relations between Quito and Bogotá could lead to more predictable economic policies and stronger coordination at the border.

Consumers could also begin seeing lower prices as existing inventories purchased under the tariffs are replaced by goods imported without the additional duties. Businesses have an incentive to reduce prices because maintaining tariff-era prices would risk losing customers and shelf space to competing products.

The adjustment may not be immediate. Retailers must first sell merchandise acquired at higher costs, while transportation schedules, purchase orders and distribution agreements return to their previous rhythm.

Rice restriction remains unresolved

One significant obstacle continues despite the broader agreement to remove tariffs.

Ecuadorian rice remains prohibited from entering Colombia through the land border. Colombia’s June 5th decree eliminating its retaliatory tariff maintained the rice restriction for 45 days after the decree’s official publication.

The continuing ban means the recovery remains incomplete for Ecuadorian rice producers, even as most other goods begin crossing the border under normal tariff conditions.

For merchants and manufacturers, the episode demonstrated how quickly political disputes can alter an established commercial relationship. It also showed that removing a tariff is much easier than restoring contracts, customers and supply chains once businesses have been forced to look elsewhere.

Along the northern border, trucks and merchandise are again moving in greater numbers. But the final stage of the recovery will depend on whether the new political relationship can deliver the stability businesses need to rebuild the trade connections disrupted during the first half of the year.