Between August and October, Daniel Noboa made significant political gains, capturing 39 cantons from Correísmo. This strategic shift was observed in the second round of elections, where Noboa not only retained his own victories but also secured 28 cantons previously won by other candidates.

In this crucial second round, Daniel Noboa emerged victorious in 16 provinces, overshadowing the Correísmo candidate Luisa González who secured victories in only eight provinces. This setback for the Citizen Revolution can be attributed to various factors, including campaign strategies, the national context, and the experiences of individual voters.

Interestingly, González experienced a surprising loss in six provinces—Imbabura, Pichincha, Cañar, Azuay, El Oro, and Morona—where she had previously triumphed on August 20. Conversely, Galapagos, Bolívar, Napo, and Pastaza, where candidate Fernando Villavicencio had initially secured victories, leaned towards Daniel Noboa in the second round.

González could not sustain August results

As the results neared completion, Daniel Noboa claimed victory in 106 cantons, while Luisa González held 115. Despite her higher count of cantons, González fell short in accumulating enough votes for an overall victory. Notably, Correísmo managed to maintain its initial victories in only 113 out of 152 cantons, as Noboa outperformed in 39 of them.

Among the pivotal cantons wrested from the Citizen Revolution were Quito, Santo Domingo, and Esmeraldas. On the flip side, of the 41 cantons initially won by Noboa, he maintained an impressive lead in 39, with only two leaning towards Correísmo in October. Additionally, the 28 cantons where candidates Villavicencio and Pérez initially dominated all shifted to Noboa’s favor.

While Noboa secured fewer cantons, he garnered more votes, demonstrating his broad appeal. Remarkably, in 76 of the 106 cantons he won, Noboa received over 60% of the votes. His most significant victory was in Taisha (Morona), where he secured an impressive 84% of the votes, despite the area’s challenges in accessing basic services. This support was particularly strong in the Sierra Centro and the Amazon regions, which have a substantial indigenous presence.

Conversely, Noboa faced tougher competition in the cantons of Manabí, Esmeraldas, and Los Ríos, where González had previously achieved substantial victories. Notably, Correísmo received overwhelming support in specific cantons within these provinces, such as Jaramijó, Palenque, Pichincha, Jama, and Olmedo, where they garnered over 80% of the votes.

Additionally, there were 23 cantons where the margin between both candidates was less than 5%, highlighting the close competition. El Tambo and Daule stood out with a razor-thin margin of 0.32% and 0.24%, respectively, with Noboa securing the former and González the latter.

Correístas subdued as votes came in

Correísmo now faces a period of reflection and analysis following its second consecutive presidential election loss. The prevailing atmosphere lacks the triumphant fervor that characterized the movement for the past decade, during which it celebrated over 10 consecutive electoral victories. The grand rallies and jubilation have been replaced by a more subdued tone.

In a stark departure from the past, Correísmo’s election night event moved from the bustling Los Shyris Avenue to a hotel room. With 90.56% of the votes tallied, the ADN alliance candidate, Daniel Noboa, secured a lead with 52.3% of valid votes, while Correísta candidate Luisa González trailed with 47.7%.

Unlike earlier times, the Correístas opted for caution and withheld any premature celebration. They awaited the official results, eschewing the previous exuberance that characterized their victories.

Ultimately, when Luisa González took the stage three hours after polls closed, she gracefully accepted defeat. Alongside key figures of Correísmo, she extended her well-wishes to Daniel Noboa, urging him to fulfill promises made during the campaign, such as universal admission of high school graduates to universities and restoring peace and security.

The leaders of the Citizen Revolution exited the room, signaling a period of introspection and internal analysis. While Correísmo faces a political crossroads, the resilience and adaptability of the movement may yet shape its future trajectory.