Government insists reserves and thermal backup will keep electricity flowing through the month’s highest demand period.

Pressure on the grid

President Daniel Noboa is betting that Ecuador can make it through April without sliding back into the power crisis that haunted the country in 2024, even as falling water levels and a strained generation system revive concerns about the stability of the national grid.

Speaking in interviews released during the first half of April, Noboa said the country has enough electricity to meet demand through the month, despite recent problems tied to reduced flow at Coca Codo Sinclair, Ecuador’s largest hydroelectric plant, and the gradual drop in the Mazar reservoir, one of the system’s most closely watched indicators.
His message was blunt: the government does not expect a repeat of the blackouts that battered households and businesses last year. According to Noboa, April, traditionally one of the months of highest electricity demand, can be covered without major disruption because reservoir levels remain above danger thresholds and additional thermal generation has been brought into the system.

Mazar at the center of the debate

The Mazar reservoir has become a focal point in the government’s defense of its handling of the electricity sector. Noboa argued that although the reservoir has been falling in recent weeks, it is still not near the level considered critical for operations.

On April 9th, Mazar stood at about 2,137 meters above sea level, a figure the president said shows that Ecuador still has room to maneuver. The threshold commonly cited as critical lies between 2,110 and 2,115 meters above sea level. At those levels, the hydroelectric plant can continue operating, but with greater risk to turbines because of sediment.

That has allowed the government to argue that current conditions, while tighter than a year with abundant rainfall, are still far from collapse. Noboa said that at this point in the annual cycle, reservoir levels have often been lower in past years, and he insisted the current situation should not be interpreted as an imminent emergency.

Even so, the reservoir’s recent trajectory has raised concern. Since March 12th, Mazar has dropped roughly 17 meters from its maximum level, reflecting weaker rainfall in the Austro and the broader pressure that drought conditions have placed on the electricity system. For officials, the question is not whether the level has fallen, but whether the decline will continue long enough to outpace the government’s backup measures.

A system with little margin

The unease surrounding the sector stems from how little room Ecuador often has between available generation and actual consumption. The country’s electricity system has an installed capacity of about 4,630 megawatts, while usual demand ranges between roughly 4,200 and 4,400 megawatts. At peak times, however, that figure can climb much higher.

One of those peaks came on March 18th, when demand reached 5,274 megawatts, underscoring how quickly the system can come under stress. That narrow operating margin has made every reservoir reading, every change in river flow, and every interruption in thermal support politically and economically significant.

The recent sudden outages reported in parts of Quito and Guayaquil have only deepened public anxiety. In Quito, residents in several areas experienced repeated service interruptions in the final days of March and the opening stretch of April. In Guayaquil, some interruptions were attributed to security-related orders tied to curfew measures in four provinces. Even when officials describe these incidents as isolated or unrelated to a generation shortfall, they have sharpened public sensitivity to any sign of weakness in the system.

Government points to new capacity

Noboa has responded by framing the current moment as proof that his administration’s energy strategy is working. He says Ecuador is in a stronger position than it was during the blackouts because the government has expanded available generation and improved how it uses existing water reserves.

Among the projects he highlighted are the inauguration of Toachi-Pilatón, maintenance work at Daule-Peripa that he said contributes an additional 200 megawatts, and the addition of roughly 400 megawatts to the thermoelectric fleet. He has also pointed to the development of hydroelectric projects on the western side of the Andes, which operate under a different rainfall cycle than plants fed by rivers on the eastern side.

In the government’s telling, those measures are the reason Mazar has not been drained the way it was in other difficult years. Noboa said Ecuador is now better able to withstand three- to four-week dry stretches before seasonal rains return, which he said usually happens around the third week of April.

The administration is also trying to project a longer-term sense of control. Noboa said authorities are moving ahead with permitting for private generation projects, including solar plants and gas turbines, in an attempt to diversify the energy mix and reduce the country’s dependence on vulnerable hydroelectric conditions.

Memories of 2024 still loom

That argument is being made against the backdrop of fresh memories from two years ago, when low water levels helped push Ecuador into a severe electricity crisis. In April 2024, Mazar spent the month below about 2,118 meters above sea level, and the country suffered widespread power cuts. By contrast, 2025 brought heavy rains in southern Ecuador, leaving the reservoir full through April and sparing the country from outages.

This year appears to fall somewhere between those two extremes. Reservoir levels are lower than in the rain-soaked conditions of 2025, but still comfortably above 2024’s danger zone. That middle ground is what the government is using to reassure the public that the country is not headed toward another collapse.

Still, Ecuador’s dependence on hydroelectric power means that confidence can shift quickly. A few more weeks of weak inflows, another jump in demand, or problems in backup generation could change the equation. That is why even official optimism has been paired with constant reference to thermal support, reserve management, and new capacity.

Political stakes of keeping the lights on

For Noboa, the electricity question is about more than engineering. It has become a test of political credibility. He has openly argued that the government is not receiving enough recognition for avoiding blackouts after the turmoil of the previous crisis. His administration wants the current moment to be seen not as luck, but as the result of deliberate intervention in a fragile sector.

That helps explain the confidence in his recent remarks. Rather than merely saying the country might get through April, Noboa chose to say there will be enough energy throughout the month and that those expecting a breakdown would be disappointed.

Whether that confidence holds will depend on the same variables that have long defined Ecuador’s energy vulnerability: rain, reservoir levels, thermal support, and demand peaks that leave almost no cushion. For now, the government is asking the country to believe that this April will be remembered not for blackouts, but for the month when a fragile system held.