Ecuador’s electricity deficit has reached around 1,900 megawatts—exceeding the capacity of Coca Codo Sinclair, the nation’s largest hydroelectric plant.
Only a week ago, President Daniel Noboa announced that power outages, previously lasting up to 10 hours a day, would gradually reduce from October 21 until November 6, when they’d reach four hours daily.
But this promise held up for just four days.
Near midnight on October 24th, interim Minister of Energy Inés Manzano reported that the country would endure up to 14 hours of blackouts daily until at least October 27th. The government will reassess the blackout schedule after that date.
Escalating Blackouts in Ecuador
Ecuador is now in its most severe phase of power outages since the current electricity crisis began.
Blackouts, previously around eight hours in April 2024, varied between four and twelve hours by September 23. Now they’ve hit 14 hours.
Andrés Oquendo, former president of the College of Electrical and Electronic Engineers of Quito, warned that “Ecuador hasn’t yet hit rock bottom.”
He noted that the 14-hour blackouts occur during weekends when energy demand typically drops, but demand could drive cuts up to 16 or even 20 hours on weekdays.
Broken Promises Amid an Ongoing Crisis
The recurring blackouts since September 2024 stem from insufficient electricity to meet Ecuadorians’ demand, according to electrical sector specialist and former Inecel technician Ricardo Buitrón.
The country’s maximum demand is about 5,063 megawatts, while current generation is only around 3,100, creating a deficit of about 1,963 megawatts. This shortfall, greater than Coca Codo Sinclair’s capacity of 1,500 megawatts, means Ecuador is operating at a daily deficit of about 21% of required power.
President Noboa’s promises to reduce blackout times were met with skepticism from experts, given the deficit conditions existing even when he made the announcement on October 17th.
“It’s absurd, and it’s only made the situation worse,” Oquendo said, emphasizing that no quick fix was feasible.
Drought Worsens the Power Shortage
Minister Manzano attributed the prolonged blackouts to an extreme drought, the worst in 61 years. This challenging climate situation, which affects much of South America, compounds Ecuador’s power crisis.
However, experts point out that severe drought conditions were anticipated as early as 2022, with forecasts suggesting reduced hydroelectric output through 2024.
Electricity specialist Hugo Arcos added that October to December has historically been the most drought-prone period, making it unlikely that conditions would improve quickly.
The country’s hydroelectric power, accounting for almost 58% of Ecuador’s 5,200-megawatt installed capacity, is highly vulnerable to drought.
Key plants in the Paute-Molino, Mazar, and Sopladora complexes, which together represent 38% of national demand, rely on water from the Mazar reservoir. Water levels there are critically low, sitting just one meter above the threshold for severe water shortage.
On October 25th, the government took steps to temporarily shut down the Paute complex in an effort to conserve resources.
No Immediate Solutions
Experts assert there are long-term solutions to address the generation deficit, but they won’t help in the immediate term.
Additional heavy rain in hydroelectric regions is the most straightforward solution, but it’s out of the government’s control. Former Energy Minister Antonio Gonçalves noted the unpredictability, remarking, “Only God knows” how long the power cuts will last.
Ecuador’s thermoelectric sector, its main alternative to hydroelectric power, is also limited. Though the nation has about 3,439 megawatts of installed thermoelectric capacity, around 2,000 megawatts are in outdated facilities, many with a 30-year operational life nearing expiration.
Currently, only about 879 megawatts are available.
Noboa has recently contracted an additional 100 megawatts from a floating power barge and managed to recover 334 megawatts through repairs.
Another 241 megawatts from new thermoelectric engines, expected by December, may not arrive until early 2025 due to delays caused by Hurricane Milton.
Additional projects aimed at increasing output by 410 megawatts aren’t expected online until March 2025.
Limited Help from Colombia
Another possible source of power—imports from Colombia—was cut off on October 1st, as that country also grapples with drought, though it hasn’t yet resorted to blackouts.
Energy expert Gabriel Secaira suggests Colombia’s export restrictions may remain in place until mid-2025. In response, Manzano indicated on October 25th that she would request an exception from Colombia, allowing direct energy sales from a private Colombian supplier to Ecuador.
The prolonged outages and lack of short-term fixes suggest that Ecuador’s electricity crisis will continue, with further disruptions likely in early 2025 if conditions don’t improve.
A fine example of secondary costs of climate disruption, ironically the shops in the historic center run gasoline powered generators to maintain business, creating more of the very emissions that caused this environmental disruption. Let’s educate and accept the need to eliminate fossil fuels.