Ecuador’s presidential race tightens as polls show Daniel Noboa and Luisa González in a near deadlock.

As Ecuador approaches its highly anticipated presidential election on February 9, 2025, the latest polls indicate a fiercely competitive race between current President Daniel Noboa and Luisa González of the Citizen Revolution movement. With just days left before the vote, uncertainty looms over whether a second round will be necessary to determine the winner.

According to Ecuadorian electoral law, a candidate must secure an absolute majority—more than 50% of valid votes—to win outright. Alternatively, a candidate can claim victory in the first round by obtaining at least 40% of valid votes and maintaining a lead of over 10 percentage points against the runner-up. However, the latest survey results suggest that this threshold remains elusive, making a runoff increasingly likely.

Diverging Polls, Uncertain Outcome

Recent polling conducted by five different firms presents mixed results, with Noboa maintaining a slight edge over González in most cases. However, the margin varies significantly between surveys, and only one indicates a clear first-round victory.

• Business and Strategies (Jan. 21st): With undecided, null, and blank votes included, González leads with 41%, while Noboa follows with 36%.
• Ipsos (Jan. 24th): When excluding null and undecided votes, Noboa reaches 50%, compared to González’s 6%. With those votes included, Noboa holds 45.3%, while González secures 31.3%.
• Sign Comunicaliza (Jan. 24th): Without null and undecided votes, Noboa leads with 1% to González’s 39.5%. Including them, Noboa stands at 38.1%, and González at 32%.
• Confidential Report (Jan. 25th): Noboa registers 37%, while González follows with 29% (excluding null and undecided votes).
• Telcodata (Jan. 29th): Noboa holds 9%, with González close behind at 43.2%—one of the tightest margins seen.

What Comes Next?

With the polls painting an uncertain picture, the potential for a runoff on April 6th looms large. If neither candidate secures an outright victory, the second round could prove to be a dramatic showdown between Noboa and González.

Campaign strategies in the final stretch may play a decisive role, as candidates work to secure last-minute support from undecided voters and those who previously intended to submit blank or null ballots. Additionally, the reliability of polling data will be tested as Ecuadorians head to the ballot box.

As the country prepares for a crucial decision, the only certainty is that the race remains too close to call.