Unseasonable downpours refill the Mazar reservoir and restore confidence in the country’s energy stability.

Rains bring relief to the energy sector

Ecuador’s power grid has caught a welcome break this October. Unusual early-season rains have filled the Mazar reservoir to its maximum level, sweeping away the specter of blackouts that haunted the country last year. According to hydrological reports, the reservoir reached 2,153 meters above sea level on October 6, 2025—the highest possible mark—allowing hydroelectric plants to run at full capacity. As a result, hydroelectric generation now supplies 86% of Ecuador’s total electricity demand.

This is a dramatic turnaround from the same period in 2024, when water shortages led to widespread power cuts lasting up to 14 hours a day. Back then, Mazar’s reservoir reached record lows, forcing its shutdown and compounding a national energy emergency.

Rigoberto Guerrero, deputy manager of Environmental Management at Etapa, said the rains have defied expectations. “October is usually dry, but this year three of the first six days brought significant rainfall,” he noted. “It’s quite unexpected, but it has made all the difference.”

Atypical weather patterns continue

Meteorological forecasts now suggest that the unusual rains may continue into November. Although Ecuador typically enters its dry season in October, Guerrero explained that the recent climate patterns have been anything but typical. “The forecasts were fluid,” he said. “September and October were expected to be dry, but rainfall events have occurred intermittently—and the same is anticipated for the coming weeks.”

These irregular weather events have boosted water flow in the Paute River basin, which powers one of Ecuador’s most important hydroelectric systems. Rivers feeding the basin, including the Tomebamba, Yanuncay, and Tarqui, are all flowing well above their seasonal averages. Normally, the Tomebamba and Yanuncay carry about five cubic meters per second; they are now at six and eight, respectively. Even the smaller Tarqui River has seen a modest increase from four to five cubic meters per second.

Cautious optimism for the months ahead

While the October rains have provided short-term stability, experts warn that uncertainty remains for December and January. Electricity specialist Gabriel Secaira said the challenge lies in fixing output restrictions at key hydroelectric plants such as Minas San Francisco and Delsitanisagua. “The repairs and optimization of these plants will determine whether the system can handle the drier months ahead,” he said.

Adding to the concern is the delayed arrival of new generation capacity. A contract to rent 260 megawatts of turbines for the Pascuales plant has been signed, but the equipment will not arrive until next year. Meanwhile, the power plant of the Uruguayan company Austral remains idle despite an arbitration ruling that prevents the state from terminating its contract.

Two other major facilities, Quevedo and Salitral—formerly operated by U.S.-based Progen—are also inactive. The state-owned energy corporation Celec canceled the contracts over non-compliance, leaving the projects abandoned and the generating units offline.

A reprieve, not a resolution

For now, Ecuador’s energy system enjoys a reprieve from the crisis of 2024, but the sustainability of this recovery depends on continued rainfall and the government’s ability to restore full generating capacity. The current situation has shown how quickly nature can tip the balance between abundance and scarcity.

As Guerrero put it, “This year’s rains have been a blessing, but we must remember how fragile that blessing can be.”