A new chapter without a new beginning.

Daniel Noboa officially launched his first full presidential term on May 24, 2025, but unlike most presidents beginning their time in office, he faces the unique reality of continuing a government he’s already been leading for the past 18 months. After completing the remainder of Guillermo Lasso’s truncated 2021–2025 term, Noboa now steps into a fresh mandate with no transition period and no excuses for not knowing the terrain.

This continuity brings both benefits and burdens. On one hand, Noboa and his cabinet have had time to gain institutional knowledge, navigate the complexities of the public sector, and set the groundwork for future reforms. On the other, the political grace period typically granted to new presidents—those first 100 days of cautious optimism—does not apply to him. According to political analyst Santiago Basabe, the public now expects immediate results, not more diagnostics.

An experienced start, a complex landscape

Since Ecuador’s return to democracy in 1979, only one other president—Rafael Correa—has been reelected. Noboa’s historic re-election places him in rare company, but it also means his administration will be judged more swiftly and more harshly. Voters will be looking for evidence that his first 18 months in office were more than just political survival.

Noboa enters this new term with certain advantages. He enjoys high post-election popularity and leads a political movement, National Democratic Action (ADN), that controls the Assembly. Though his majority is not unshakable, it is functional enough to move key legislation forward—especially with support from allied parties. This opens the door for long-promised reforms, particularly in public security, economic growth, and foreign investment.

But Noboa also faces immediate challenges. Despite their internal divisions and a bruising electoral cycle, the opposition Citizens’ Revolution party still commands 66 seats in the Assembly and could form an effective counterweight if they forge new alliances. Politically, Noboa cannot afford to ignore the potential for legislative gridlock, or the revival of street protests should popular discontent rise again.

Economic challenges and opportunities

Noboa’s inaugural message emphasized his intent to focus on economic development, job creation, and the attraction of foreign investment. His administration has argued that it has already “put the house in order” during its interim leadership, and that it’s now ready to deliver results. But the economic indicators at the start of this new term suggest a steep hill to climb.

The 2025 national budget, which must balance spending on security, social programs, and infrastructure while reducing the fiscal deficit, will be a test of the government’s economic planning. Inflation and unemployment remain persistent concerns, as does the country’s reliance on oil exports and remittances to maintain foreign reserves. Meanwhile, the government’s ability to maintain or reduce subsidies without triggering public backlash remains uncertain.

Other indicators that will shape Noboa’s economic agenda include GDP growth projections, tax revenue generation, public investment levels, and the ability to negotiate trade agreements that open Ecuador’s economy to global markets without undermining domestic industries. These data points will become the yardstick for evaluating his administration in the short and medium term.

Social debt and persistent inequality

The country’s social indicators reveal a reality that belies economic figures alone. Rates of poverty, inequality, chronic child malnutrition, and forced migration remain high and have not seen significant improvement during the last 18 months. Noboa’s government has acknowledged these issues but now must demonstrate progress on reducing disparities that affect millions of Ecuadorians.

Improving healthcare, education, and access to basic services in rural and marginalized communities will require more than policy tweaks—it demands a social investment strategy that is both fiscally sound and politically sustainable. The government will also be expected to address gaps in employment, particularly for youth and women, and respond to the causes of outward migration that have strained families and regional relations.

Security remains central to Noboa’s agenda

Noboa’s popularity surged in part due to his decisive rhetoric and aggressive policies on public security. Following a wave of violence in 2023 and 2024 that shocked the nation—including high-profile assassinations and attacks on police and military personnel—Noboa declared an internal armed conflict and deployed the military to combat organized crime.

That strategy resonated with many voters and was instrumental in his electoral victory. But now, Ecuadorians want results, not just deployments. The key indicators here include the number of violent deaths, femicides, extortion cases, and criminal group arrests. The effectiveness of the so-called “Plan Fénix” and other security initiatives will determine whether Noboa’s war on terror translates into lasting safety or devolves into a cycle of militarized confrontation.

While crime statistics are trending downward in some regions, criminal groups remain active, particularly in coastal provinces and along the Colombia-Ecuador border. The administration’s ability to integrate security strategy with judicial reform, prison control, and community engagement will define the long-term outcome of these efforts.

A government on the clock

With no transition period to cushion his start, President Noboa now faces a tightly wound political clock. Analysts suggest that by the end of 2025, the public will expect measurable progress—not just policy announcements. That includes concrete legislation, visible security improvements, and economic programs that begin to shift the needle on employment and inequality.

For now, Noboa enjoys a commanding position. His message is one of execution, not preparation. But the expectations are as high as the stakes, and unlike in 2023, he can no longer blame his challenges on the past. The second act of his presidency begins now—and Ecuador is watching.