Trade expansion, investment attraction, and terrorism crackdown dominate the president’s four-year vision.

With just five days remaining before his second term begins, President Daniel Noboa has laid out an ambitious four-year plan focused on economic revitalization, foreign investment, and national security. In a public message posted on social media on May 17th, Noboa framed his next term as a turning point for Ecuador’s development, promising a pivot from stabilization to sustained growth.

“Over the next four years, we will concentrate on economic growth, attracting more investment and employment, defeating terrorism, and expanding international trade,” Noboa wrote, outlining what he described as the cornerstone pillars of his administration’s future efforts.

A Shift from Recovery to Expansion

Noboa came to power in late 2023 amid economic turbulence, widespread public insecurity, and a severe energy crisis. In the first 18 months of his administration, he prioritized restoring fiscal order and combating organized crime, particularly targeting drug cartels and their networks inside Ecuador’s prisons and port cities.

Now, he says, it is time to “show the world Ecuador’s potential,” by promoting job creation and positioning the country as an attractive destination for global capital.

On the same day as his public announcement, Noboa’s government introduced a new legislative initiative: the Organic Bill to Dismantle the Criminal Economy. This proposed law is aimed at building a robust legal framework to confront what he defines as the “criminal economy” linked to internal armed conflict. It outlines sweeping measures intended to disrupt illicit financing networks, strengthen institutional protections, and expand legal tools for prosecuting organized crime.

Lagging Investment, Modest Employment

Despite promises of growth, the administration faces significant economic headwinds.

Foreign direct investment into Ecuador dropped to just $232 million in 2024—the lowest annual total in over a decade. The domestic employment landscape remains fragile as well. As of March 2025, the country’s adequate employment rate was 34.2%, nearly identical to the 34.4% reported a year earlier. Unemployment saw a marginal improvement, dipping to 3.3%, but structural underemployment remains entrenched in many sectors.

While Noboa has emphasized that Ecuador’s economic house is now in order, critics argue that tangible gains in job creation and productivity have yet to materialize.

Nonetheless, the Central Bank of Ecuador and international financial institutions are cautiously optimistic. The country is expected to rebound from the 2% economic contraction it experienced in 2024, with GDP growth projections ranging from 2.8% (according to the Central Bank) to 4% (as cited by Noboa during his presidential debate appearances).

Rebuilding Confidence, Managing Risk

The expected recovery in 2025 is fueled by a confluence of more favorable conditions. Last year’s severe drought crippled energy production and forced power outages lasting up to 14 hours a day. With rainfall levels normalizing, energy officials expect to avoid such drastic rationing in the coming months.

International markets have also responded positively to Noboa’s reelection, which they interpret as a signal of policy continuity—particularly regarding fiscal reforms and cooperation with the International Monetary Fund. Analysts anticipate that Ecuador will continue to adhere to its IMF-supported economic stabilization program, making it eligible for additional multilateral disbursements.

However, risks remain. One of the most pressing concerns is Ecuador’s declining oil income. Global oil prices have been sliding due to escalating trade tensions between the United States and China, Ecuador’s two largest trade partners. On top of that, the country’s oil output has suffered setbacks from infrastructure failures, including repeated pipeline ruptures, and the progressive closure of wells in the ITT block mandated by a 2023 national referendum.

This convergence of external shocks and internal production limits threatens to further reduce a key source of fiscal revenue.

New Trade Alliances, Old Dependencies

To diversify the country’s economic base, Noboa is pushing for an aggressive expansion of trade relationships. His administration is in advanced negotiations to finalize agreements with Canada and South Korea—both seen as strategic markets with untapped potential for Ecuadorian exports.

But the timing is complicated. Global trade flows are being reshaped by intensifying tariff conflicts between Washington and Beijing. These disputes have the potential to disrupt Ecuador’s trade volumes with both nations, particularly in commodities like shrimp, bananas, and flowers.

Nonetheless, government officials remain hopeful that by broadening Ecuador’s trade portfolio and removing bureaucratic bottlenecks in sectors like mining and agriculture, the country can unlock new sources of income and attract long-term capital.

In the mining sector specifically, major companies are waiting on the government to fulfill its promise to reopen the national mining registry, which would allow for new concessions to be granted for exploration and extraction. Environmental groups, however, have warned that loosening restrictions could spark fresh conflicts with Indigenous communities and escalate deforestation in vulnerable ecosystems.

Walking a Tightrope

Daniel Noboa enters his second term with a rare combination of political momentum and international goodwill. But the path ahead is far from guaranteed.

With inflation pressures, fragile public finances, and criminal violence still looming large in many parts of the country, the president must now deliver results that meet rising public expectations.

His challenge will be to transform political rhetoric into measurable gains in security, employment, and economic stability—without triggering new social fractures or environmental backlash.

As the countdown to the May 24th inauguration continues, Ecuadorians are waiting to see whether Noboa’s second term will mark the beginning of a true national transformation, or simply the continuation of incremental reforms in a country still struggling to define its post-crisis identity.