Ecuador assures no blackouts in 2025 while prioritizing urgent energy infrastructure upgrades to address potential future shortages.

The Ecuadorian government has issued conflicting signals regarding the state of the country’s energy sector, with officials simultaneously ruling out power outages in 2025 while acknowledging the urgent need for new electricity generation to address looming challenges in the national grid.

On one hand, Energy Minister Inés Manzano assured the public that there is “no possibility of a blackout” in April 2025, attributing her confidence to seasonal rainfall patterns and recent energy recoveries. On the other hand, the Ministry of Energy has declared the electricity sector a priority, citing the necessity for rapid infrastructure improvements to mitigate the impact of potential drought conditions expected between 2025 and 2026.

Government Dismisses Blackout Concerns

In a televised interview on February 19th, Manzano dismissed concerns over power shortages, stating that “April brings a thousand showers,” reinforcing the notion that the country’s hydropower-dependent system will remain stable. She contrasted this projection with the blackouts Ecuador suffered in 2024, which she attributed to “poor management at the beginning of the administration of that minister and her team.”

Her assurances align with President Daniel Noboa’s recent claim that the government has ruled out power cuts until at least 2026. He credited this outlook to efforts in energy recovery, including the restoration of 700 megawatts (MW) of electricity—500 MW from the geothermal sector and additional capacity from hydroelectric plants.

Adding to this recovery is the gradual activation of the Toachi-Pilatón hydroelectric complex, which has an installed capacity of 254 MW. However, not all of its components are operational yet. Floating barges have also been incorporated to bolster energy availability, and the government has relaunched six contracting processes aimed at addressing the nation’s energy deficit. Manzano noted that wind energy projects, expected to contribute approximately 500 MW, are also nearing contract finalization.

Manzano also claimed that Ecuador has also resumed energy exports to Colombia as of February 13th, signaling a reversal from the country’s previous reliance on Colombian imports. Manzano confirmed that Ecuador is currently self-sufficient, though official data from the National Electricity Operator (Cenace) suggests that some electricity was still imported from Colombia in February.

Energy Ministry Declares Sector a Priority

Despite the reassurances from Manzano and Noboa, a recent ministerial agreement paints a more urgent picture of Ecuador’s energy future. Published in the Official Registry on February 19th, the document declares attention to the electrical system a “priority,” calling for immediate action to prevent disruptions in 2025 and 2026.

The agreement directs the Ecuadorian Electricity Corporation (CELEC) to fast-track the acquisition or leasing of electric generation capacity, as well as the construction and commissioning of new transmission systems. These additions must be operational between mid-2025 and early 2026 to maintain a continuous power supply.

The directive also tasks Petroecuador with ensuring sufficient fuel and natural gas supplies to support both existing and future power plants. Additionally, administrative units within the Ministry of Energy must expedite private sector contracts and enabling titles for new energy projects.

Beyond these short-term measures, the Ministry has called for sector-wide studies on incorporating nuclear and geothermal energy into Ecuador’s electricity matrix, aiming to secure long-term stability. According to Cenace, national energy demand is projected to increase by 360 MW in 2025, and an additional 430 MW of firm energy will be required to sustain the grid during the anticipated dry season from September 2025 to March 2026.

Contradictory Messaging Raises Questions

While the government maintains that blackouts are not imminent, its actions indicate concern over the nation’s ability to meet future electricity demand. The simultaneous declaration of an energy priority status and the insistence that outages are off the table suggest a delicate balancing act between public confidence and pragmatic infrastructure planning.

Ecuador’s reliance on hydroelectric power makes it particularly vulnerable to climate variations, as demonstrated by the blackouts of 2024. Whether the government’s current measures will be sufficient to avoid a repeat scenario remains to be seen.

As the country moves toward implementing new generation sources and infrastructure projects, Ecuadorians will be watching closely to see whether the administration’s optimism holds up against the realities of energy demand and supply.