Ecuadorian pollsters face growing distrust after years of inaccurate election forecasts and allegations of political interference.

Ecuadorians have headed to the polls four times in the last eight years to choose their president, and each time, the nation’s polling firms have failed to provide clarity. Instead of offering insight, the polls have repeatedly triggered confusion, false projections, and even allegations of fraud—deepening public distrust in both the political system and the mechanisms meant to explain it.

From the outset, polling companies have struggled to accurately forecast outcomes in the country’s increasingly volatile elections. Whether through flawed methodology, changing voter behavior, or deeper political interference, their projections have repeatedly misled candidates and the public alike.

In the most recent 2025 presidential runoff, Ecuadorians witnessed yet another polling debacle. Exit polls released by Telcodata and Corpmontpubli contradicted each other: one forecasted a narrow win for President Daniel Noboa, while the other predicted victory for Luisa González of the Citizens’ Revolution. The contradictory numbers were seized upon by González and her allies, who quickly cited them as evidence of electoral fraud—though no formal complaint has been submitted to the National Electoral Council (CNE).

A History of Misdirection

These inconsistencies are not new. The problem can be traced back at least to the 2017 runoff between Lenín Moreno and Guillermo Lasso. That evening, the polling firm Cedatos announced that Lasso held a commanding lead with 53% of the vote, prompting him to declare victory. National outlets echoed the sentiment, placing public expectations firmly in his favor.

But the celebration was premature. Other polling efforts, including those from Perfiles de Opinión and the National Polytechnic University’s quick count, painted a different picture—one that showed Moreno ahead or the race too close to call. Days later, the CNE confirmed Moreno’s win, sending shockwaves through Lasso’s campaign and sparking days of protests outside the electoral authority’s Quito headquarters. A limited recount was conducted, but the result stood. Amid the unrest, Cedatos itself became a target. Authorities raided its offices, though the ensuing investigation went nowhere.

Familiar Patterns, New Faces

By the 2021 election, Guillermo Lasso once again stood in a runoff, this time against Andrés Arauz, the new face of Correísmo. This round saw three major polling firms produce conflicting results. While two pointed to a Lasso victory, Clima Social reported a statistical tie. Ultimately, Lasso won, but the margin of error among pollsters further chipped away at their credibility.

Two years later, after Lasso invoked the constitutional “muerte cruzada” to dissolve the legislature and call early elections, Luisa González and Daniel Noboa advanced to a runoff. This time, only one pollster, Luis Lapo, dared to release exit polling. While he correctly projected Noboa as the winner, he significantly underestimated González’s share—by almost eight percentage points. It was another hit to pollster credibility.

Despite these ongoing failures, the polling drama played out yet again in 2025. And with no definitive source of truth in the moment of decision, speculation and doubt took hold—particularly among González’s supporters, who remain vocal in their suspicions.

Fear, Distrust, and the Unknown Voter

Why have Ecuador’s pollsters failed so consistently? Experts offer varying explanations, but most agree the root problem is not limited to Ecuador.

“This is a global issue,” says Luis Verdesoto, political analyst and former CNE member. “It’s not just about bad methodology or dishonest actors. We live in an era of uncertainty. People are unwilling to share their true opinions, especially in politically tense environments.”

Verdesoto points to historical examples to support his theory. In 2011, a government-run poll during then-President Rafael Correa’s controversial referendum was off by as much as 19 percentage points in some questions. “People were scared to reveal their positions. They thought they’d face consequences,” he says, warning that fear of authoritarian backlash may still be affecting voter transparency today.

Pollster Blasco Peñaherrera Solah, who runs the Market firm, echoes this sentiment—but adds another dimension. “Yes, some people are scared, especially with the country’s ongoing security crisis,” he says. “But we also have to consider whether the problem lies with the vote count itself.”

An Uneasy Relationship with the CNE

Peñaherrera recounts his firm’s experience during the 2023 regional elections, where Market’s predictions aligned with official results in 12 out of 14 provinces. In Guayas, however, his team’s numbers didn’t match the final tally reported by the CNE.

“We did a full audit—cross-checked every recorded interview—and everything checked out,” he says. “But when we compared our work with the CNE’s audit, we found inconsistencies. We filed a complaint with the Prosecutor’s Office, but like many of these cases, it went nowhere.”

That incident led Market to withdraw from the next two national elections, citing lack of confidence in the process. Peñaherrera insists more oversight and transparency are needed—not just in polling practices, but also within the CNE.

A Crisis of Confidence

With each election, Ecuador’s polling firms find themselves more distrusted and more sidelined. Once tools for understanding the electorate, they are now often viewed with skepticism—if not outright disdain. For a country already grappling with deep political divides and a surge in violence and insecurity, the absence of reliable data only fuels further unrest.

As the nation prepares to finalize its latest electoral chapter, one thing is clear: pollsters are no longer the bellwethers they once were. Whether they can regain public trust—or whether the system itself needs an overhaul—remains an open question.