Indigenous leaders call for resistance while the ruling party floods social media with lavish pro-government ads.

A divided nation prepares for a pivotal vote

With less than two weeks before Ecuadorians head to the polls, the country is once again split between two competing visions of its future. On one side stand the government and its supporters, rallying voters to approve four referendum questions that President Daniel Noboa says are vital for “modernizing” the nation. On the other is a coalition of indigenous groups, labor movements, and social organizations mobilizing a nationwide “no” campaign, arguing the proposals betray hard-won rights and hand too much power to foreign interests.

The referendum, set for November 16th, includes three constitutional reforms and one popular consultation. Ecuadorians will decide whether to permit foreign military bases on national soil, eliminate public financing for political parties, and shrink the National Assembly from 151 to 73 members. The consultation asks whether to convene a new constituent assembly to replace the 2008 Constitution drafted under Rafael Correa’s government.

Conaie takes to the streets

The Confederation of Indigenous Nationalities of Ecuador (Conaie), representing 18 peoples and 15 nationalities, has launched what it calls a “national minga” — a collective action — to oppose all four questions. The campaign began on November 1st with assemblies across indigenous territories and will culminate in coordinated protests and road closures the week of the vote.

Marlon Vargas, Conaie’s president, framed the movement as a fight for survival. “They want to take away our democracy, our health care, and our education,” he told communities in a weekend address. “This is not just about voting; it’s about defending life, dignity, and the planet.” Conaie leaders have scheduled forums with political allies and former officials, including ex-legislator Jorge Guamán and former constituent Alberto Acosta, to discuss the broader implications of Noboa’s proposals.

In Cotopaxi, the Indigenous and Peasant Movement (MICC) is holding open assemblies to explain the referendum’s contents. Their social media channels feature the slogan “Four times no,” calling on voters to reject what they describe as a plan to privatize social services and cede sovereignty to foreign militaries. “Our people’s vote is one of conscience and dignity,” said Rafael Negrete, the group’s leader. “We will not allow foreign bases on our land.”

Grassroots resistance after failed strike

The push against the referendum follows a faltering national strike in Imbabura province, where protests against rising diesel prices lasted 31 days but achieved little. Still, that episode hardened indigenous resistance and strengthened regional networks now being used to coordinate the “no” vote. From the northern highlands to the Amazon, assemblies and local meetings are being organized by groups such as the Federation of Kichwa Peoples of the Northern Highlands (Chijallta FICI), led by Sisa Cotacachi, who has focused discussions on the social impact of Noboa’s economic agenda.

Noboa’s camp floods the airwaves

While the opposition relies on community gatherings and hand-painted banners, the president’s National Democratic Action (ADN) movement is running an aggressive digital and street campaign promoting the “yes” vote. Rallies in Guayaquil and Quito feature music, slogans, and high-production videos, with the president’s mother and former legislator Annabella Azín leading neighborhood tours in coastal cities.

Azín told residents that Ecuador must “protect its natural resources and fight illegal fishing, mining, and organized crime” — efforts she said require “foreign collaboration” and advanced technology. She insisted that inviting military cooperation from abroad “does not mean ceding territory,” recalling Ecuador’s past partnership with the United States at the Manta Air Base.

The government’s campaign has emphasized optimism, unity, and a break from the political conflicts of the past. Its slogans — “Say yes to Danielito” and “A new country” — dominate radio, television, and social networks. Videos feature paid actors and influencers promoting the message, often without directly mentioning the government or the referendum. Some clips use humor and pop culture to connect with younger audiences, though several have drawn criticism for mocking marginalized groups.

Unequal campaigns and digital dominance

The starkest difference between the “yes” and “no” movements lies in money. While the indigenous organizations operate on volunteer efforts and modest local donations, the pro-government side is pouring thousands of dollars daily into online advertising. Political observers note the proliferation of anonymous accounts spending heavily on sponsored posts that echo official talking points.

Ecuador’s electoral authority has admitted that its oversight does not extend to digital platforms, where much of the modern campaigning now occurs. This has allowed a largely unregulated influx of partisan content — memes, short videos, and orchestrated “trending” topics — to shape voter perceptions long before the official campaign period began.

Fragmented opposition faces an uphill fight

In contrast, the “no” front remains fragmented. Environmental groups frame their opposition around protecting nature and animal rights, while labor unions focus on threats to social security and pensions. Former Correa supporters, once the backbone of leftist mobilization, have not mounted a unified digital response. Most of the “no” campaign’s visibility comes from town meetings, posters, and a handful of low-budget testimonial videos.

Even so, Conaie insists its strength lies in its people, not its finances. “Our resistance is born in the streets, not in studios,” said one community leader in Imbabura. The organization plans another national assembly on November 6th to finalize its strategy for election day.

An uncertain verdict

As Ecuador moves toward its referendum, the divide between the grassroots and the government grows more visible — one driven by conviction, the other by resources. Whether the polished media blitz or the village-to-village resistance will prevail remains uncertain. But across the highlands, coast, and Amazon, the message from the indigenous movement is already echoing: “Vote no to everything.”