Concerns grow over electricity supply as dry season approaches, leaving Ecuador reliant on imports and rented barges.

Reservoirs near capacity but flows already falling

Ecuador’s main hydroelectric reservoirs are nearly full, but experts warn the country is entering a period of vulnerability. By September 1, 2025, the Mazar reservoir—part of the Paute-Molino hydroelectric complex in Azuay and Cañar—stood at 95% capacity, yet the flow of water feeding it had dropped sharply from 203 cubic meters per second on August 27th to just 51.7.

That decline signals the start of the dry season, when lower rainfall reduces the output of the cascade of plants that supply roughly 41% of Ecuador’s national electricity demand. “Even if the reservoirs are full, inflows are dropping below average, and that’s the first sign of stress,” electrical expert Ricardo Buitrón explained.

Hydroelectric dependence deepens the risks

Hydroelectric plants generate about 5,200 megawatts of Ecuador’s 7,300 megawatts of installed capacity. But during the dry season, generation often falls by half. The shortfall is difficult to replace because much of the country’s thermoelectric park is aging and unreliable. By July 2025, only 834 megawatts of nearly 1,900 installed were operational.

Another concern lies in the Coca Codo Sinclair plant, Ecuador’s largest, which was designed for 1,500 megawatts but delivers only 800–900 because of structural problems. Electrical analyst Gabriel Secaira warned that, combined with seasonal demand spikes in the final quarter of the year, these weaknesses could push the system close to its limits.

Blackout memories linger from 2024 crisis

Ecuador’s electricity crisis in late 2024 remains fresh in the public memory, when outages stretched up to 14 hours and hydroelectric production collapsed to barely 30% of capacity. Colombia, which typically sells electricity across the border, cut back on exports during that crisis, forcing Ecuador to drain its reservoirs at emergency levels.

Officials insist 2025 will be different. The government points to the leasing of three Turkish power barges supplying nearly 300 megawatts, the launch of the Toachi Pilatón hydro plant adding 200 megawatts, and the El Descanso facility with another 20. Together, these additions reduce the expected deficit, though not enough to erase it.

Colombia remains Ecuador’s lifeline

Experts calculate that the country still faces a likely gap of around 430 megawatts in the coming dry months, but much depends on Colombian exports. If Bogotá maintains sales at full capacity, Ecuador would enter the season with 450 megawatts more than last year. If not, shortages could again worsen.

“It’s unfortunate that we don’t have true energy security. We continue to depend on Colombia and on the prices it sets,” Secaira said.

Buitrón added that reliance on rented barges is costly and temporary, while contracts for new thermoelectric projects have failed amid irregularities. A pending bid for another 230-megawatt barge may ease the shortfall, but delays mean it will not be ready in time for this year’s dry season.

Pressure builds on Mazar reservoir

If Colombian power becomes too expensive—or unavailable—the government will be forced to increase withdrawals from the Mazar reservoir to supply the Paute-Molino complex. At low inflow rates, the reservoir could last three months if carefully managed, producing about 370 megawatts. But any miscalculation risks faster depletion and renewed blackouts.

“The system is fragile. It buys us time but not certainty,” Buitrón warned. For now, Ecuador’s lights stay on—but the country’s reliance on weather, foreign power sales, and rented solutions leaves little room for error as the dry season advances.