Ecuador’s youngest president navigates a year of economic reform, energy crises, security threats, and political strife.
Daniel Noboa, inaugurated on November 23, 2023, as Ecuador’s youngest president, has completed a tumultuous first year in office. At just 35 years old, his administration has faced significant challenges, including economic instability, an energy crisis, growing security threats, and political turbulence. While some strides were made in fiscal management and international relations, the young president’s leadership has been shaped by compromises and criticism as Ecuador grapples with deep-seated structural issues.
Ambitious Economic Reforms and Controversies
President Noboa’s economic agenda has been one of the most contentious aspects of his administration. In April 2024, his government introduced a Value Added Tax (VAT) hike from 12% to 15%, a move that contradicted his campaign promise not to raise taxes.
Despite the backlash, the administration justified the measure as essential to addressing Ecuador’s fiscal crisis, estimating it would generate an additional $1.5 billion annually.
In a bid to cut state spending, the government also eliminated fuel subsidies for extra and Ecopaís gasoline, introducing a fluctuating pricing system tied to global oil markets. Implemented in July 2024, this change was framed as a necessary step toward fiscal sustainability but sparked widespread concern over its impact on household costs.
Former Economy Minister Fausto Ortiz noted that while these measures showed promise in reducing fiscal deficits, they did little to alleviate Ecuador’s $5.5 billion in outstanding arrears, which remained virtually unchanged from the start of Noboa’s term.
The administration also secured a $4 billion loan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in May 2024, receiving an initial $1 billion disbursement. The deal, which includes commitments to long-term fiscal stability, highlighted the government’s reliance on external funding to navigate financial constraints. However, Ortiz criticized the administration’s public investment strategy, arguing that delays in funding critical sectors, such as electricity, diminished the potential impact of these reforms.
Despite an increase in job opportunities between September 2023 and September 2024, Ortiz characterized the labor market’s progress as insufficient compared to government targets. He also pointed out that public investment in areas like health and education was curtailed, reflecting the broader struggles of an economy constrained by limited access to new financing.
Energy Crisis Grips the Nation
In September 2024, Ecuador’s energy crisis reached a breaking point, with rolling blackouts of up to 14 hours a day affecting several provinces. The crisis was primarily caused by prolonged drought conditions that severely reduced hydroelectric output at key facilities, including the Mazar and Paute complexes. Compounding the problem, operational issues at the Coca Codo Sinclair plant further limited energy production.
The government sought relief by purchasing electricity from Colombia and Peru, though these imports covered only a fraction of the deficit. Colombia supplied an average of 430 megawatts, far short of the 1,080-megawatt shortfall caused by diminished domestic production.
Critics argued that while the administration eventually increased investment in the energy sector, earlier action could have mitigated the crisis.
Security Challenges and Expanding Military Powers
Security concerns have loomed large over Noboa’s first year in office. In January 2024, the government declared an “internal armed conflict” to combat escalating violence linked to organized crime. This declaration allowed for increased military deployments in public spaces and prisons, targeting drug trafficking and gang-related violence.
Throughout the year, Noboa issued eight state of emergency decrees, reflecting the administration’s reliance on extraordinary measures to address security threats.
Despite these efforts, violence has remained a persistent problem, with critics questioning the long-term effectiveness of the government’s strategies. Nevertheless, Noboa’s tough stance on crime has garnered some public support, particularly in regions hardest hit by gang activity.
Environmental Policies and the Yasuní Controversy
In August 2024, the administration began shutting down oil operations in the Yasuní National Park’s Block 43-ITT, complying with a 2023 public referendum. The decision, hailed by environmental advocates, marked a significant shift in Ecuador’s approach to balancing economic development with ecological preservation.
Block 43-ITT had generated over $6.7 billion in revenue between 2016 and 2022, making its closure a significant economic loss. Critics argued that the government lacked a clear plan to offset this revenue shortfall, raising questions about how it would fund essential programs without increasing financial strain on other sectors.
Political Strife and Internal Divisions
Noboa’s presidency has been characterized by significant political challenges, including tensions within his own administration. His relationship with Vice President Verónica Abad deteriorated early in his term, culminating in her suspension for 150 days over allegations of absenteeism.
Political analyst Maximiliano Donoso-Muller described the dynamic between Noboa and Abad as emblematic of the government’s internal disarray, which has weakened its ability to address broader political challenges.
In the National Assembly, Noboa initially secured consensus on key issues such as security and economic reform. However, as the year progressed, shifting political alliances and the looming 2025 elections eroded this support. The government faced two impeachment attempts against ministers Gabriela Sommerfeld and Mónica Palencia, though both narrowly avoided censure.
Noboa has also faced accusations of political inexperience, with critics pointing to strained relationships within his cabinet and a lack of cohesion in his broader governance strategy.
Diplomatic Challenges
On the international stage, Noboa’s administration faced criticism for its handling of the arrest of former Vice President Jorge Glas at the Mexican Embassy in Quito. While the government framed the incident as a necessary assertion of sovereignty, it sparked diplomatic tensions with Mexico and drew scrutiny from international organizations.
Political analysts noted that the incident, while initially damaging to Ecuador’s global reputation, was strategically leveraged by Noboa to rally domestic support by portraying his critics as adversaries of the state.
A Complex Legacy After One Year
Daniel Noboa’s first year in office has been defined by significant reforms and persistent challenges. While his administration has made strides in addressing fiscal sustainability, combating organized crime, and upholding environmental commitments, critics argue that much work remains to be done.
As Ecuador enters 2025, the young president faces mounting pressure to deliver tangible progress on economic growth, energy stability, and political unity.
For Noboa, the next year will be critical in determining whether his presidency can overcome these hurdles and set Ecuador on a path toward a more prosperous and stable future.
Compared to the presidents that have come before him, Naboa has done a remarkable job. Is he perfect? No, yet he is dealing with the huge problems left to him by incompetent and, largely, corrupt governments that caused the issues so many are blaming him for. The one that does the most gets the most criticism not because they deserve it but because of jealousy and from”back-seat drivers” who think they could drive Ecuador better than Naboa.