Projections point to record non-oil exports, deeper trade ties, and a tourism sector gaining economic weight.

Ecuador’s economic strategy for the next two years leans heavily on a single premise: that a diversified export base and a stronger tourism industry can provide stability in a volatile global environment. Government projections suggest that non-oil exports will continue their rapid expansion, approaching $32 billion by 2026, while tourism cements itself as one of the country’s most dynamic non-oil activities.

Officials forecast that non-oil exports will reach nearly $31.9 billion in 2026, a year-on-year increase of about 10%. That projection follows a strong performance in 2025, when exports outside the oil sector are estimated to have climbed 17% to just over $29 billion. The figures reflect a sustained upward trend that has been building for several years, with exports growing 5% in 2023, 12% in 2024, and accelerating further last year.

According to government planning documents, this growth is not being treated as a short-term rebound but as evidence of a structural shift toward a more open and competitive economy. Authorities point to improved market access, targeted trade policies, and a gradual broadening of the export base as key drivers behind the numbers.

A stronger trade balance

One of the clearest signs of momentum has been the non-oil trade balance. Between January and October 2025, Ecuador posted a surplus of nearly $4 billion in non-oil trade, almost 50% higher than in the same period of 2024. That surplus exceeded the balance recorded during the entirety of the previous year, underscoring a notable strengthening of the country’s external accounts.

This performance has been supported in part by changes in trade conditions abroad. The elimination of a 15% surcharge previously applied by the United States to certain Ecuadorian products has improved competitiveness in the country’s largest export market. At the same time, officials emphasize internal measures aimed at expanding exportable supply and reducing bottlenecks in production and logistics.

Productivity, training, and formalization

Behind the export figures lies a broad effort to strengthen productive capacity, particularly among small and medium-sized enterprises. During 2025, more than 12,000 producers and businesses participated in commercial promotion activities, while close to 30,000 productive units received some form of training. Over 10,000 specialized technical assistance processes were delivered with the aim of improving efficiency, quality, and competitiveness.

Formalization has also been a central pillar of policy. Thousands of new registrations were processed across artisan, MSME, and entrepreneurship registries, a move intended to integrate smaller producers more fully into formal markets and export chains. Digital tools have been promoted to support this transition, including programs designed to help businesses assess their readiness for digital transformation and international trade.

Market access initiatives, particularly those focused on small and medium enterprises, attracted hundreds of thousands of visits during the year, highlighting growing interest from producers seeking to connect with buyers at home and abroad.

Quality standards and international support

Efforts to improve quality and compliance with international standards have been backed by external cooperation. In mid-2025, a quality certification program concluded with several food-sector MSMEs achieving internationally recognized standards related to food safety and manufacturing practices. These certifications are seen as essential for accessing higher-value markets and building long-term export relationships.

Additional technical cooperation programs, totaling more than $12 million, focused on areas such as technological upgrading, energy efficiency, and the circular economy. These initiatives were implemented in coordination with multilateral and international partners and reflect a broader push to align Ecuadorian production with global sustainability and efficiency benchmarks.

Expanding trade agreements

Trade diplomacy has played a prominent role in the export strategy. Over the past year, Ecuador finalized a trade agreement with South Korea, opening preferential access to one of Asia’s most dynamic economies. A bilateral investment treaty with the United Arab Emirates was also signed, aimed at strengthening investor confidence and positioning Ecuador as a stable destination for foreign capital.

Dialogue with the United States has continued through a joint framework designed to address technical and regulatory issues with the country’s principal trading partner. At the same time, Ecuador is engaged in an ambitious agenda of trade and investment negotiations. Talks are currently underway with a wide range of partners across the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, and Asia, reflecting a deliberate effort to diversify markets and reduce reliance on a small number of destinations.

Domestic trade policy has also been adjusted to support national production. A series of resolutions approved during 2025 included tariff changes for agricultural products, lower duties on strategic inputs for key sectors, and measures linked to environmental sustainability. These policies are intended to balance competitiveness with conservation and long-term resource management.

New exporters and business promotion

The push to broaden the export base is beginning to show tangible results. In 2025 alone, dozens of companies exported for the first time, while many others joined government-supported business assistance systems. Commercial processes facilitated during the year generated hundreds of millions of dollars in deals, a sharp increase compared with the previous year.

International promotion remained active, with dozens of events abroad and extensive training activities at home. These efforts were complemented by technical assistance programs carried out in cooperation with international partners, reinforcing the link between export promotion and capacity building.

Tourism gains economic weight

Alongside exports, tourism has emerged as a critical component of the non-oil economy. In 2025, international visitor arrivals rose steadily, reaching about 1.2 million non-resident tourists by November, an increase of more than 8% compared with the previous year. Visitors from the United States led the recovery, followed by travelers from neighboring and European countries.

Inbound tourism generated close to $918 million in foreign exchange in the first half of the year alone, placing the sector among the country’s top non-oil, non-mining activities. Officials note that tourism spending has a multiplier effect, contributing additional value across the broader economy and supporting employment growth.

By the third quarter of 2025, tourism-related activities accounted for more than half a million jobs, while domestic tourism continued to play a significant role, with millions of trips and hundreds of millions of dollars in spending recorded nationwide.

Regulatory reforms have accompanied this expansion. New guidelines for tourism operations in both mainland Ecuador and the Galapagos were issued, and a comprehensive tourist security plan launched in mid-2025 extended coverage to tens of thousands of establishments. Public investment in promotion and destination development supported businesses across dozens of locations and generated millions of digital interactions, reflecting a strategy that combines physical infrastructure with global marketing.

Taken together, the export and tourism projections outline a development path centered on diversification, market access, and institutional support. Whether these ambitions translate into lasting resilience will depend on global conditions and domestic execution, but for now, Ecuador’s planners are betting that non-oil sectors can carry a growing share of the economic load through 2026 and beyond.